The young Iranians do not believe in a reform of the existing system. In a guest article, Maryam Rajavi, one of the leading politicians of the Iranian opposition, describes how a transition to democracy could succeed.
What is currently unfolding in Iran is neither a repetition of previous uprisings nor an emotional reaction to a temporary crisis. This movement marks an advanced and mature phase in the people’s struggle against the regime – a process that began years ago and has now reached a point of no return.
Until recently, the key assumptions of the global powers were that the clerical regime in Iran was stable and that a collapse was not realistically to be expected. Today, however, many are talking, even openly, about the possibility of its collapse. The EU’s decision to classify the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization after the brutal suppression of the wave of protests was a sign of a new understanding of the real state of the regime.
This raises two fundamental questions. First, how is regime change achieved? Second, what are the prerequisites for a peaceful transition – and is such a transition possible?
Today, practically no one believes in change from within. During the wave of protests in 2017, the people of Iran declared the end of the reform illusion with the slogan “Reformist, hardliner – the game is over”.
The other option, foreign military intervention, has also been tested by recent experience and is not the answer to Iran’s crisis. Airstrikes may damage the power structures, but they will not bring about the fall of the regime.
Among all the conceivable options, there is only one viable way: the overthrow of the regime by the people themselves and their organized resistance. This path is not easy, but it is achievable – and the recent uprising is clear proof of this.
This uprising is the result of 47 years of pent-up anger, political consciousness and historical experience of a society that has come to a final conclusion: the problem is not a policy or a faction, but the entire system of Velayat-e Faqih (supremacy of the clergy). These protests have clear causes: the collapse of the national economy; inflation that, according to the regime, has reached almost 45 percent; widespread poverty and chronic water and energy crises. The regime has no solutions to these problems – and the situation is getting worse by the day.
A defining feature of this protest phase is the simultaneous participation of different social groups. The spread of the protests to 400 cities – according to regime officials – shows that the rift between society and the ruling establishment has reached a qualitative breaking point.
However, a key distinguishing feature of this uprising lies in the leading role of organized forces – especially the youth and the resistance units. They have succeeded in linking scattered protests into a nationwide movement, wresting the initiative from the repressive apparatus in various places and increasing the costs of repression for the regime. The answer to the question of how to overthrow the regime lies precisely in this connection between the popular uprising and an organized, determined force – a link that was consistently effective during these protests, but did not receive the attention it deserved in the face of certain propaganda campaigns.
Democratic transfer of power
This organized force is the result of a decades-long struggle – a struggle that has claimed the price of more than 100,000 deaths, including 30,000 political prisoners massacred in 1988. This terrible number of victims testifies to the social roots, the organizational capacity and the legitimacy of this resistance within Iranian society.
The answer to the second question – how to achieve a peaceful transition – is also based on the same reality. Only a movement rooted in popular resistance, with a broad network on the ground, a clear roadmap and a defined program, proven organizational skills, sufficient experience and international recognition can guarantee a calm and democratic transfer of power.
The existence of such an alternative is the key condition to prevent chaos. The coalition of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, of which I am a member, has long been preparing and outlining the framework for the transition phase: the formation of a provisional government; holding free elections to a Constituent Assembly within a maximum of six months; a complete transfer of sovereignty to the elected representatives of the people. The basic principles are the separation of religion and state, full equality between women and men, freedom of political parties, an independent judiciary and the abolition of the death penalty.
In Iran, a return to the past is impossible. A society that has endured nearly five decades of oppression and structural corruption is now more aware than ever of freedom and the rejection of despotism. The young generation leading the uprising rejects both the monarchical dictatorship and – for years – the illusion that the existing system can be reformed. This generation pursues the goal of a democratic republic.
In this context, the role of women is crucial. Women who have been victims of systematic discrimination and repression for decades have now become the driving force of the uprising. Their leading presence has changed the psychological balance of power in society and serves as a guarantee against the return of any form of despotism in the future.
The Iran of the future will be a democratic, secular, pluralistic and non-nuclear republic – at peace with the world.
At this moment, the responsibility of the international community is clear: it must increase the costs of repression through targeted sanctions, in particular by stopping oil exports. It must demand legal accountability for the architects of the crimes, expel the regime’s security agents, recognize the right of the people and youth to defend themselves against repressive forces. The international community must be on the right side of history – on the side of a people who are paying the price of freedom with their own blood.
Maryam Rajavi is the President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran for the transitional period of the transfer of sovereignty to the Iranian people.
